Ukrainian businesses have learned to survive under constant stress, but the figures from early 2026 give pause for thought.
A new study by the Center for Innovation Development and Advanter Group, conducted in March 2026, provides an in-depth look at the current state of affairs in the private sector.
After analyzing the responses of 514 business owners and CEOs from all regions of Ukraine, analysts presented the updated Ukrainian Business Index (UBI). This indicator, which has been calculated since 2020, is a key marker of business activity, allowing for a comparison of current business sentiment with data from previous survey waves and official statistics from the State Statistics Service for 2020–2026.
As of March 2026, the UBI (Ukrainian Business Index) stands at 32.9 (out of a possible 100 points). A reading below 50 points indicates pessimistic business sentiment.
More than 60% of respondents reported a decline in the number of customer orders, 50.2% saw a decrease in production and service output, and 32.7% of respondents reduced their workforce.
Business Activity: General Trends
In the first two months of 2026, most of the Ukrainian companies surveyed reduced their activity. Overall, production activity stood at 85.9%. The largest group of respondents (32.1% of companies) is currently operating at 70–90% of their usual capacity. Another 16.5% of businesses are operating at only 40–60% of capacity. At 11.7% of enterprises, activity has fallen to 10–30%.
Only 14.9% of companies showed positive growth, with significant growth recorded in just 2.3% of them.
Production capacity is utilized at 52.4%, compared to 64.8% in December 2025. Companies are able to operate, but the market does not need that much output. Customers have either disappeared or are cutting back. As a result, nearly 64% of companies are forced to either suspend operations or significantly scale them back.
In other words, Ukraine’s private sector has entered a high-risk zone. Nearly half of the surveyed companies (49.4%) are operating under unstable or critical financial conditions. The main obstacle to growth is a lack of funding.
Although one-third of the market (37.9%) reports a need for investment or loans, actual access to capital remains blocked. These risks are exacerbated by low liquidity. The average business buffer is only 2.5 months of operating activity. Against the backdrop of delayed payments from partners (29.6% of respondents reported an increase in accounts receivable), businesses’ ability to meet their own obligations is becoming increasingly precarious.
The strategies of the Ukrainian companies surveyed for March 2026 fell into three categories. The first is radical cost-cutting, as more than 9% of businesses plan to scale back operations. The second is maintaining the status quo; more than a third of those surveyed are simply trying to hold their ground. The third approach encompasses the largest group of respondents (over 43%), who express cautious hopes of scaling up their operations should the overall situation in the country improve.
Assessment of destabilizing factors in the economic environment
The energy sector remains a destabilizing factor for the Ukrainian economy. Statistics confirm that for 53.9% of businesses, the centralized power grid is critical (meeting over 80% of their needs). This makes businesses vulnerable to any fluctuations in the grid.
Despite ongoing energy challenges, 22.8% of the businesses surveyed remain vulnerable to potential blackouts, lacking any source of backup power. A significant percentage of respondents (47.7%) use diesel generators, and one in three companies uses uninterruptible power supplies (37%). Despite the global trend toward renewable energy sources, only 10.1% of respondents use solar panels.
This vulnerability translates into direct losses. Indeed, 46.6% of respondents report a drop in monthly revenue of more than 10%. The winter months (December–February) proved particularly difficult. The combination of rocket attacks and consumption limits resulted in nearly 40% of businesses losing more than 20% of their productive time.
A key indicator of business performance is the search for qualified professionals. Despite businesses’ efforts to operate, 63.8% of respondents report that they cannot find enough qualified personnel to fill key positions. At the same time, the internal situation within companies appears deceptively calm. Staff turnover remains low. 76.5% of companies report this figure at 15% annually. Such stability in the current workforce indicates that people are holding onto their jobs. However, this is not enough for growth. The key risk in the first months of 2026 is not the loss of current employees, but the inability to attract new ones, which effectively keeps the business within its current boundaries.
At the same time, businesses are using various methods to attract new employees and retain existing ones. More than 65% of respondents offer pay raises, 43% implement flexible schedules, and nearly 30% introduce bonus schemes.
The shadow economy remains a significant obstacle for businesses. Analysts have identified three main reasons why hidden schemes remain the norm. The first reason is purely mathematical: 61.9% of entrepreneurs say the tax burden is too high for their businesses to survive. The second is emotional: 47.7% of respondents simply do not trust government institutions. The third reason concerns the shadow economy: 38.5% of businesses are forced to operate in the shadows because otherwise they would simply lose out to competitors who are already there and do not pay taxes. This creates a vicious cycle. And without trust, businesses will not change their habits. The system requires radical changes, not cosmetic fixes.
The planning horizon for most respondents is currently limited to a few months. They are simply afraid to look beyond that timeframe. Under such conditions, scaling up is hardly a consideration. Only 17.1% of companies have the courage to announce plans for active expansion. The rest are simply playing defense as the situation dictates. 57% of companies operate in reactive management mode, do not focus on strategic planning, and respond to problems as they arise.
According to the survey, uncertainty is a major obstacle to the activities of Ukrainian entrepreneurs. Nearly half of those surveyed (48.4%) cite the complete unpredictability of the situation in the country as a significant barrier. This is closely followed by another factor contributing to chaos—the unpredictable actions of the government itself (48.2%). Added to this are the lack of solvent customers (47.5%), lack of capital (46.7%), high taxes (36.8%), and obstacles from regulators (14.6%).
In summary, Ukrainian businesses entered 2026 amid ongoing turbulence. Despite labor shortages, an energy crisis, and the challenges posed by the shadow economy, entrepreneurs are holding their ground, even though their planning horizon has shrunk to a critical two and a half months.
You can view the full results of the study here
The study was prepared by Advanter Group in collaboration with the Center for Innovation Development, the Office for Entrepreneurship and Export Development, and the national project “Dія. Business, and the “Pulse” platform, with support from the Ministry of Digital Transformation, the Ministry of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture of Ukraine, and the Coalition of Business Communities for the Modernization of Ukraine as part of the Initiative for Economic Recovery, Entrepreneurship Development, and Export Promotion in Ukraine.