The study was conducted within the framework of the project “Transformational Human Security Restoration in Ukraine” with the financial support of the Government of Japan, implemented by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in Ukraine and implemented by the joint Innovation Development Centre, the Business and Export Development Office, the national project Diia.Business, the Centre for Economic Recovery and the Advanter Group in cooperation with the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine, the Ministry of Digital Transformation. Ukraine.
The survey period was 27.02-12.03 2025. A total of 504 respondents – owners and CEOs of MSMEs –were interviewed .
As of March 2025, the UBI (Ukrainian Business Index) stands at 38.6 (out of 100 possible points). There has been a slight increase since January 2025 (36.9 points), but it remains lower than in May and August 2024 (43.7 and 39.9 points, respectively). The growth of the index in the first three months of this year was driven by an increase in the number of orders from customers. Thus, 19% of companies indicated that sales had increased compared to the previous period, while 31% of respondents indicated that sales remained at the same level.
National businesses continue to demonstrate high social responsibility and commitment to the programme, supported by both their employees and local community initiatives. More than 68.3% of MSMEs provide financial assistance to the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), and another 51.2% of companies have programmes to support employees and their families.
The weighted average monetary value of the amount of aid that MSMEs plan to receive by the end of 2025 is 11.2% of the same figure for 2024. At the same time, in the first three months of 2025, the business had a higher result compared to the same period last year (91.8%).
State of the business environment
The main factor behind the growth of the index in the first quarter of 2025 was an increase in the number of orders from customers. In addition, 19% of companies reported an increase in sales compared to the previous period, while another 31% recorded a stable level of sales.
Despite the challenging labour market, businesses want to retain their existing human resources. Thus, 72% of companies did not change the number of employees in the first three months of the year. The share of companies that made redundancies decreased from 26% in January to 21% in March 2025.
For reference: The UBI indicates business activity, its ability to increase turnover and create jobs. If the index is below 50, it means that businesses have negative expectations of further developments.
UBI shows business activity, the ability to increase turnover and create jobs. A score below 50 indicates a negative expectation.
The work of enterprises
According to the survey results, 51.7% of respondents assess the financial and economic condition of their company as unsatisfactory or satisfactory. Another 30.4% of the survey participants describe it as mediocre. The financial and economic condition of their own companies was highly rated by 17.8% of respondents, who said that their companies were in good or excellent financial condition.
A significant proportion of companies (40.2% of respondents) demonstrate optimistic expectations about financial and economic dynamics in the next period, predicting improvement or significant improvement in their financial position. 36.9% of the surveyed enterprises plan to maintain their current financial position. At the same time, 23.4% of respondents expect deterioration or significant deterioration in the financial and economic situation.
The weighted average percentage of current capacity utilisation is 59.2%. Almost half of the respondents (44.1%) indicated that the average level of current capacity utilisation ranged from 50% to 70%.
In the first three months of 2025, the actual financial results of the business were lower compared to the same period of the previous year, which is 91.8% of the corresponding level in 2024. Only 2.8% of respondents indicated that they had completely ceased operations. The level of business has remained unchanged in 27% of companies. An increase was reported by 21.9% of respondents.
At the same time, the weighted average projected revenue of MSMEs in monetary terms at the end of 2025 exceeded the same indicator in 2024 by 11.2%.
Assistance to the Armed Forces of Ukraine and participation in humanitarian projects
MSMEs are active citizens, participating in various initiatives and programmes aimed at supporting the Armed Forces of Ukraine, internally displaced persons (IDPs), as well as employees and their families. thus, 31.2% of companies allocate up to 1% of their turnover to the needs of the Armed Forces, 21.5% – from 1 to 3%, and 2.4% of companies allocate more than 10% of their turnover for such purposes.
68.3% of respondents said that their companies provide support to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 51.2% help employees and their families, and 31.7% of MSMEs have employed IDPs.
Businesses are actively involved in implementing social projects and local initiatives: 20.6% of respondents reported their companies’ involvement in humanitarian projects, and 10.7% of companies also contributed to the restoration of facilities at the regional or community level. More than 11.1% of companies said they were able to provide financial assistance.
The overall employment situation in companies remains stable. Compared to 2024, the average number of employees in the first three months of this year decreased by 4.6%. Staff reductions were recorded by 35.5% of the surveyed companies, while 30.3% of enterprises, on the contrary, increased the number of employees. At the same time, 34.3% of respondents said that the number of staff in their organisations remained unchanged.
On average, companies have filled 69.8% of their staff positions. At the same time, 4% of companies have a critical shortage of staff, with less than 40% of the remaining positions filled. Another 10.4% of companies are experiencing a significant shortage of staff, ranging from 40% to 50%. Only 27.9% of companies can boast a full staff.
Key challenges for MSMEs
The majority of respondents noted the top 5 key problems that prevent companies from recovering and developing their economic activities:
- 59.1% – unpredictability of the situation in Ukraine
- 56.7% – lack of a sufficient number of solvent customers
- 56.0% – unpredictable actions of the state, which can significantly worsen the damage to business
- 47.6% – lack of a sufficient number of qualified employees
- 42.5% – lack of sufficient capital
Among the main problems in interaction with the authorities, managers and business owners note the following: blocking of tax invoices (30.2%), refusal to book employees (18.7%), inspections and extortion by tax authorities before paying taxes (12.7%), delays in logistics at the border (12.3%).
The full results of the survey are available HERE